$100 million for Canada’s Atlantic salmon: What does it mean for recovery? | Hatch Magazine

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced last week “the largest investment in wild Atlantic salmon conservation in Canadian history” by funding the country’s National Strategy to Ensure the Future of Atlantic Salmon to the tune of $81.7 million over five years. The government money will be matched by $25 million raised by the Atlantic Salmon Federation from private donors and foundations, and will essentially activate the national strategy that was first launched in March 2024 after a years-long process that engaged thousands of Canadians, regional salmon councils, and Indigenous groups in eastern Canada on the need for salmon conservation efforts.

The government’s commitment to Atlantic salmon conservation via the newly funded national strategy, however, appears to be more of a high-elevation approach to salmon management in eastern Canada. According to its executive summary, the strategy “sets out a vision for the future of this species across its Canadian range. Paramount to this vision is creating space for the Indigenous knowledge of Atlantic salmon accumulated since time immemorial to be shared, respected, and meaningfully integrated. Underlying all areas of this strategy is a commitment to work collaboratively to create the conditions necessary for Atlantic salmon to thrive. Through its vision, strategic outcomes, and outputs, the strategy serves as a guide for Atlantic salmon restoration, science, policy, and management, and is an important accountability document for Canadians as to how the species is stewarded.”

While the strategy’s verbiage — the use of science and data in fisheries management is standard and often reveals the best path forward when it comes to species conservation — is encouraging, it’s not necessarily actionable. The real work, it would appear, is going to have to come from Canada’s existing salmon conservation apparatus, which is the country’s Ministry for Fisheries, Oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard. And, while more than $100 million over five years seems like a lot of money to devote to Atlantic salmon conservation and propagation, there are about 1,000 known salmon rivers in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. By the strategy’s own admission, “it will not be possible to invest everywhere.”

Wild Atlantic salmon are imperiled

Wild Atlantic salmon populations are generally down throughout the fish’s North American range. Presently, the only viable populations of anadromous Atlantic salmon in the United States are in central and eastern Maine, and all are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act. Canadian populations are more robust, but a host of environmental stressors, from habitat decline to climate change, has the ocean-going fish imperiled in many of its native rivers. For instance, according to the ASF’s 2025 State of Wild Atlantic Salmon Report, the 2024 Atlantic salmon return was disappointing, and down considerably from initial predictions. In all, the median estimate of Atlantic salmon returns in North America was just 434,700 fish, which is significantly lower than the previous five-year average of 771,200 fish, and down from a predicted 533,500 fish put forth the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) in the ASF’s 2024 report.

Down, too, are the ICES predictions for future Atlantic salmon runs. In the 2024 report, ICES predicted a 2025 return of 594,800 fish; its fresh prediction for the 2025 run is 576,700. The good news? ICES predicts an uptick in salmon returns in 2026 and 2027, when it forecasts the annual run will once again eclipse 700,000 returning adults and grilse to North American waters. It predicts a drop in salmon returns in 2028 to 676,000 fish.

While predictions and forecasting give fisheries managers good intel and help dictate future management, the reality is that salmon numbers in southern Atlantic Canada are substantially depressed. The numbers in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, for instance, are disconcerting, and storied salmon rivers, like the Miramichi and its watershed, are not seeing improving salmon returns. In fact, it’s just the opposite. A river system that historically supported runs of 120,000 Atlantic salmon every year is now seeing only about 20,000 returning fish. The culprit?

“ASF’s long-term salmon tracking research has led us to conclude that predation from hyperabundant striped bass is the primary driver of salmon declines on the Miramichi,” ASF’s 2024 report reads. To help remedy the predation, ASF says it’s seeking an increase in commercial striped bass harvest in the area. Of course, stripers are not historically abundant in the Gulf of St. Lawrence — they’ve only begun to become “hyperabundant” in the recent years as water temperatures warm and the region becomes more habitable to fish more accustomed to milder water temperatures brought on by climate change.

Indeed, the foundation’s 2024 report was very candid, noting that salmon runs farther north are driving any positive fish return numbers happening now. The successful salmon returns in 2023 “were principally thanks to Labrador, where estimates of small salmon and large salmon returns were highest in the 54-year time series used by ICES, dating back to 1970,” the 2024 report reads. “Every other Canadian region, including Newfoundland, Quebec, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, saw declines in adult returns, especially small salmon.”

How will the strategy address imperiled runs?

Again, it’s called a “strategy” for a reason. The National Strategy to Ensure the Future of Atlantic Salmon is not a plan. At least not yet. It does, however, help stakeholders in Atlantic salmon conservation from the border of Maine north to central Labrador — the native range for Atlantic salmon in Canada — organize and start rowing the boat in the same general direction. For instance, the strategy’s funding can be used to identify salmon rivers and watersheds that have the most pressing need for conservation and habitat restoration, or to identify rivers and watersheds where success can be reasonably achieved.

“A collaborative place-based approach is one that addresses complex social, environmental, and economic issues through tailored interventions at varied geographical scales (e.g., river or watershed), taking into consideration the unique local environment,” the strategy reads. “An integrated watershed or river management plan communicates the agreed-upon approach, which is meant to be developed and implemented collaboratively by Indigenous peoples and local communities, governments, partners, and stakeholders who are all accountable in reaching the shared goal.”

The strategy’s funds can also be used to put in place advisory councils or “roundtables” devoted to salmon conservation — from policy to habitat management — in provinces where none exist now. These newly conceived entities can then gather information from local anglers, Indigenous leaders, conservation interests, etc., to craft “an integrated watershed or river management plan” for each priority place chosen by these local councils. In addition to helping shore up local conservation efforts, the strategy is meant to integrate with international Atlantic salmon conservation efforts through North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization (NASCO), which includes eight international partners: the European Union, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands, Norway, Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The strategy leans heavily on Indigenous people, both for cultural importance of Atlantic salmon to these native communities, and for historical information about salmon along Canada’s eastern seaboard over time.

“Canada will champion an increased role for Indigenous peoples at NASCO, and create space for meaningful consideration of Indigenous perspectives in Canada’s work at NASCO through the creation of an Indigenous advisory process,” one of the strategy’s “outputs” reads. Additionally, the strategy says, “The establishment of conserved areas that can support broader provincial and federal conservation and social goals will be explored in collaboration with other jurisdictions in priority areas to mitigate specific threats to Atlantic salmon (like the recommended increase in striped bass harvest in the Gulf of St. Lawrence to potential restore runs to the Miramichi watershed, for instance).

The strategy also calls for other specific actions to be taken by local councils and by national fisheries managers, including temperature monitoring where recreational angling takes place, and increased angler education, and collaboration among law enforcement agencies to reduce poaching.

In all, the strategy’s implementation will include reviews every four years during the strategy’s planned 12-year life cycle, and status reporting every two years that “will allow progress to be measured against its strategic outcomes and outputs.”

“The process of collaboration and reconciliation has been central to our efforts, reflecting the importance of working to protect Atlantic salmon and the environment,” said Diane Lebouthillier, the former minister of Fisheries, Oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard. “The challenges facing Atlantic salmon are significant, particularly in the face of climate change. Rising water temperatures, lower water levels, and more frequent extreme weather events are all contributing to the decline of salmon populations.”

Lebouthellier noted Indigenous populations that depend on salmon for cultural, ceremonial, and subsistence reasons are feeling the impacts from declining salmon runs the most. “It is essential that Indigenous knowledge and perspectives continue to play a central role in our conservation efforts.” It should be noted that Lebouthellier is no longer the minister of DFO — her successor, Joanne Thompson, came aboard last March when Carney assumed the Canadian PM role.

While the strategy is likely going to depend on a lot of moving parts, working independently on salmon conservation and restoration, the ASF sees the implementation as a significant development. In its 2025 State of the Salmon report, ASF calls the strategy a “generational opportunity to conserve and restore Atlantic salmon and enhance the benefits that people and communities receive through sustainable fisheries.”

“We’re grateful that the Prime Minister, DFO Minister Joanne Thompson, and (members of Parliament) from throughout Eastern Canada recognize the importance of Atlantic salmon,” said Nathan Wilbur, president of ASF. “They’re a keystone species that is central to the cultural fabric and local economies in the region.”